Post-Referendum Challenges – South Sudan

by Anna Stein, Program Officer

On January 9th, 2011, the people of southern Sudan began casting ballots in the long-awaited referendum on union with or secession from the north. An historic week of voting ensued, marking a watershed moment for southern Sudan.

For nearly two decades, Sudan was beset by a civil war, fought between the majority Muslim north and the largely Christian south. This war resulted in the death of almost two million people and the displacement of many millions more. In 2005 the northern National Congress Party (NCP) and the southern Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) met in the town of Naivasha, in neighbouring Kenya, to sign the agreement which would bring about an end to the conflict. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) set out mechanisms through which both parties would work to establish democratic governance and share oil revenues. It also made provision for the south to hold a referendum in which its citizens would be asked to choose between unity with the north and secession. According to the CPA, in order for the referendum result to be valid, at least 60% of those registered had to vote.

As the date set for the vote drew near, fears began to grow that the referendum would explode in violence. Many of the CPA’s minimum requirements, such as demarcation of the north-south border, were not yet met, and the northern government called repeatedly for the referendum to be delayed. The Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) response was flat-out refusal. In addition, many worried that turn out would not meet the crucial 60% requirement.

In the weeks leading up to the referendum, tens of thousands of southern Sudanese living in the north began to return to their former homes fearing persecution should the south vote for secession. 

However, despite the challenges faced by southern Sudan in organising the referendum, both the registration and the voting passed off smoothly. Long queues of people, joyfully waving their registration cards, spilled out of polling centers on the first day of voting. By the middle of the week, the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission confirmed that at least 60% of registrants had voted. By the end of the week, the turn-out was estimated near 98 per cent. Though the official result has yet to be declared, initial counts indicate 1.18% for unity and 98.81% against.

Though the referendum passed off peacefully, isolated incidents of violence did break out. The CPA granted the fiercely contested Abyei region its own separate referendum. However, this referendum has now been delayed indefinitely, leading to uncertainty around the region’s continued stability. Tensions are already rising between the nomadic Arab Misseriya tribe, and the southern agro-pastoralist Dinka who inhabit the region.

In addition, sustained reports indicate that convoys transporting southerners returning from the north have been detained by Misseriya groups. Amidst reports of violence and robbery, many southerners wishing to leave the north and return south are too scared to do so.

Those who have managed to return to their former homeland are also in a precarious position. Many were able to arrange transport to regional capitals, but have been unable to move on from there to their final destinations and remain stranded in the urban centers.

It is important to realize that secession is a process, not an event. Southern Sudan faces great challenges. Inter-communal tension continues to be a major cause of violence, and is likely to be exacerbated by the arrival of large numbers of returnees placing strain on already-scarce resources.

To respond to the threats and challenges, Nonviolent Peaceforce is exploring opportunities to establish new teams in the border states of Unity and Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and to further expand its operations in Western Equatoria State. NP’s unarmed civilian peacekeepers aim to help the people of southern Sudan move into the future in a climate of peace and prosperity.